Gilmore gale still blowing in the capital
FIANNA Fail is facing complete annihilation in Dublin, an exclusive poll for the Herald reveals today.
Labour is surging ahead in the capital with 31pc of the vote, followed by Fine Gael with 29pc.
The results reveal that Fine Gael is now unlikely to go into power alone.
The Herald/Millward Brown Lansdowne poll shows:
- FF are facing the prospect of not holding any seats in Dublin
- Labour are more popular in Dublin than Fine Gael -- a reverse of the national trend.
- Sinn Fein are being seriously damaged by 'the Gerry Adams factor' and are making no real ground amongst Dublin voters.
- Independents such as Shane Ross, Joe Higgins and Richard Boyd Barrett now account for 16pc of the vote, ahead of both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein.
- Eamon Gilmore is the most popular leader with a satisfaction rating of 48pc, followed by Micheal Martin (37pc), Gerry Adams (28pc), and Enda Kenny (25pc).
The highlights from the most comprehensive Dublin survey of General Election 2011 shows that FF supporters are transferring to Labour, Fine Gael and independents in their droves.
The poll has found that three quarters of Dubliners who voted for Bertie Ahern's party in 2007 are prepared to desert it.
The main beneficiary from the demise will be Enda Kenny's party but Labour is pulling support from a broader range of people, including 10pc of former Sinn Fein voters.
Gerry Adams’ venture into southern politics seems to have been more of a hindrance than a help for Sinn Fein.
It was expected that the party's unique “kick the IMF out” stance on economic issues would give it a boost but they have failed to make any significant inroads.
Although at 11pc Sinn Fein is one point ahead of Fianna Fail, fewer than three in ten express satisfaction with Adams as a party leader. He has failed to capture the disenchanted Fianna Fail voter from 2007 with just one in 20 (5pc) switching allegiance to Sinn Fein.
Despite waning in national polls, it appears that the 'Gilmore Gale' is still blowing in the capital where the party is enjoying 31pc support - double its 2007 level.
Fine Gael is a close second at 29pc in spite of a huge disapproval rating for its party leader Enda Kenny.
The Green Party's standing at 3pc is very similar to its national rating and suggests that like their coalition partners they too are facing obliteration.
There was a substantial boost for independents like Shane Ross and left-wing candidates like Joe Higgins and Richard Boyd Barrett. t 16pc independent and other candidates could form a larger group than Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein or the Greens.
However, a significant majority of voters would actually prefer to see Micheal Martin as the leader of the opposition in the next Dail.
Asked who they would like to see as the main opposition party if Fine Gael and Labour formed a coalition Government, 39pc said Fianna Fail compared to just 15pc for Sinn Fein.
Another 23pc said that they would like to see independents or others take the bulk of seats on the opposition side of the House.
With nine days until polling there remains a lot to play for as one-in-eight voters have not yet decided which party they will support.
The figures suggest that Fianna Fail will be fighting for the final seat in five-seat constituencies but realistically any seats won will be based on a personal vote rather party support.
In 2007, Fine Gael and Labour split 34pc of first preference votes in Dublin but that share could now rise to 60pc.
That would pave the way for them to significantly increase on ten and nine seats respectively that they won last time out.
Fine Gael supporters have been the most loyal as four out of five who supported Enda Kenny's candidates in 2007 have not changed their preference.
The poll also suggests that political history is about to be rewritten with the end of the civil war divide seeing 34pc of people who supported Fianna Fail last time moving to Fine Gael. Another 21pc of Fianna Fail support is moving towards Labout while 5pc goes to Sinn Fein and 12pc to others.
Some 10pc of Labour's 2007 voters are moving to Fine Gael while 8pc are going in the opposition direction.
Support for the party leaders is broadly in line with the national trend as Eamon Gilmore is by far the most popular, followed by Micheal Martin. However, Dubliners still have not warmed to Enda Kenny with 61pc dissatisfied with his performance compared just 25pc satisfied.
- Terry Prone: Dublin's mind is made up, it's all over for Fianna Fail
- Andrew Lynch: City's voters have power -- and they'll keep parties sweating until bitter end
- Editorial: Dubliners hold key to this election