Friday 18 January 2019

Fianna Fail's fortunes are lying in pieces in IKEA territory

THIS constituency, which is home to IKEA, tells the sorry tale of Fianna Fail better than most.

In 2007, Noel Ahern and Pat Carey took almost one in every two votes but even before polling day Ahern has fallen by the wayside and Carey's fate hangs in the balance.

It would be impossible to bet against Labour's Roisin Shortall topping the poll. Even if the Gilmore Gale flops, the party's spokeswoman on social and family affairs should be safe. That leaves two seats that could really go in any direction.

Despite this not being a strong constituency for Fine Gael, it is running two reasonably high-profile candidates -- Beaumont doctor Bill Tormey and Dublin Lord Mayor Gerry Breen.

There is no love lost between the two and to take a seat they will need transfers to follow through from whoever gets knocked out first.

Although not a TD, Sinn Fein's Dessie Ellis is a long-time activist in the Finglas part of the constituency and a city councillor since 1999.

Four years ago he clocked up nearly 5,000, and a good foundation for his latest run.

The final contender is Labour's second candidate, Cllr John Lyons. He will be depending on Roisin Shortall getting a landslide victory and passing on her transfers.

PREDICTION: Shortall (Lab), Ellis (SF) and Tormey (FG)

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