Mini bailout is forecast by NCB
IRELAND will only need a mini bailout to fund the running of the country as NAMA will be unable to return to the market, leading stockbrokers have predicted.
NCB Stockbrokers does not believe that Ireland has the ability to raise its entire 2014 funding needs without external assistance.
NCB economist Brian Devine said that Ireland is likely to require EU assistance with its post-2013 funding needs.
"We believe that this is most likely to take the form of a 'precautionary programme' rather than a full-blown three-year programme similar to Ireland's current package," he said.
Mr Devine said that even if the stockbrokers were wrong on the political call with regard to Ireland being given temporary assistance rather than having to apply for a full programme, they still believe the 2014 bonds will be paid back in full.
Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has other ideas, however. In a speech in Berlin he said that Ireland is focused on moving out of the EU/IMF programme and returning to the markets at the earliest opportunity.
"Subject to market conditions, the NTMA plans to position itself to step up issuance at the short-end in the second half of 2012," he said.
"Ideally, and if market conditions allowed, the NTMA would hope to follow this up later with some longer-term issuance, once market access has been demonstrated. Full re-entry to the bond market would follow."