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Friday 15 December 2017

City house prices up €40k in a year and 'set to rise further in 2018'

Conall MacCoille says double-digit inflation will continue
Conall MacCoille says double-digit inflation will continue

Dublin property prices have jumped almost €40,000 in the past 12 months - or €107 a day.

And there was more bad news for first-time buyers as experts predicted further price rises of 10pc or more next year.

According to the latest Property Report from MyHome.ie, the median asking price in the capital now stands at €366,000, up 11.8pc on last year.

The price of a typical three-bed semi-detached house in Dublin is €299,000.

Inflation

The surrounding commuter counties fare little better, with Wicklow prices standing at €285,000, Meath €210,000 and Kildare €205,000.

Report author Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy, Ireland's leading provider of stockbroking, wealth management and financial advisory services, predicts the acceleration in asking prices, which began in late 2016, will continue throughout 2018.

"At the start of the year, we predicted double-digit growth in house prices in 2017.

"However, due to the strength of asking price inflation in Q3, we are predicting that double-digit inflation is likely to persist throughout 2018."

He said a lack of supply, the economic recovery and the rise in household incomes of between 2pc and 3pc per annum were the main driving forces.

"However, the key factor driving house prices has been the mortgage market.

"The average loan drawn down by first-time buyers in the last quarter was up 9.4pc in the year to €200,000 from €183,000 in mid-2016.

"This has meant that leverage on new mortgage loans has increased, with ever more desperate buyers seeking larger loans as they compete for the few properties listed for sale.

Stock

"This trend is set to continue and to ensure inflation remains at double-digit level."

Meanwhile, the number of homes listed nationally by MyHome.ie has tumbled by 6.5pc in the past year to 21,424. This represents just 1.1pc of the total housing stock of two million homes.

There was a slight improvement in Dublin, where the number of properties for sale rose by 3.3pc to 4,275. However, this represented just 0.9pc of the housing stock in the capital. In a functioning market, 4pc is typical.

The average time it took a property to reach sale agreed was 4.6 months outside the capital and 3.1 months in Dublin.

The latest Daft.ie quarterly report found the average list price of a home in Dublin now stands at €354,765, up 9.9pc.

Report author Ronan Lyons, economist at Trinity College Dublin, said: "The relaxation of Central Bank rules on the minimum deposit would be expected to bring about a one-off jump in house prices, particularly in Dublin.

"This appears to have happened in the first half of the year, when prices in the capital rose by 10pc in just six months.

"Since June, though, prices have largely been stable, suggesting the change in rules has run its course."

However, he added prices are unlikely to fall in the years ahead due to the shortage of supply.

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