The day after a budget is not necessarily the best time to deliver a final verdict on it.

Sometimes it takes weeks or even months before the full implications of such a complex set of financial changes becomes clear.

Since we're in the middle of a global crisis that not even the world's best economists fully understand, the need for caution is greater than ever.

Whatever about the economics of Budget 2009, however, the politics of it are already obvious. The battlelines between now and the next general election have been drawn up -- and as usual, "it's the economy, stupid" will be the deciding factor.

Between now and polling day, the two Brians will try to persuade us that they were blown off course by an international storm not of their own making, had the guts to take the tough decisions and deserve to be left in charge.

The opposition will claim that Cowen and Lenihan blew the boom, messed around with sticking plasters instead of performing radical surgery and deserve to be thrown out on their ear.

In most modern democracies, there's a very simple political rule. When the economy is going well, governments get re-elected. When it's not, they don't.

Fianna Fail won the last three elections by convincing people that they were the only party who really knew how to look after the public finances.

Given the past few months, that reputation is starting to look very shaky.

Polls

In theory, therefore, Fine Gael and Labour start out with a major advantage. So why aren't they making more progress in the polls?

Watching the budget debate yesterday, the answer became clear. To be fair to them, Richard Bruton and Joan Burton both put in energetic performances. Given that they've been their parties' finance spokespeople for a spirit-crushing seven years now, it's amazing that they still show such a passion for the fight.

Unfortunately for them, the financial crisis hasn't just hurt the government. It's also exposed the huge policy gaps that now exist between the main opposition parties.

While FG are committed to no new taxes and massive cuts in public spending, Labour constantly put the emphasis on taking more money from the rich. While FG supported the banking guarantee, Labour voted against it in the hope that they can say "we told you so" if it all goes belly up.

This means that for the moment, the Mullingar Accord is well and truly dead. And as long as that's the case, there's no obvious alternative to the current government.

The PDs are preparing their own funeral, Sinn Fein are off in their own fantasy world and the Greens are enjoying the perks of power far too much to rock the boat.

FF are the most successful political party in western Europe. As long as they're faced by such a weak and divided opposition, they can consider themselves the luckiest as well.

- Andrew Lynch