If you live in Dublin South East, you may well have noticed a nasty smell in the air.

This week, the mystery has finally been solved. It's the odour of a government minister who's landed himself deep in the brown stuff -- and is now waffling furiously to disguise the fact that he's already past his sell-by date.

humiliations

John Gormley has had his fair share of humiliations over the last six months, but the Poolbeg incinerator controversy is possibly his most embarrassing moment yet.

After yesterday's decision by the Environmental Protection Agency to grant a licence to the project, we now have the bizarre situation where one arm of the state is insisting that €250m project goes ahead -- and another has vowed to do everything in his power to stop it.

problem

The Green Party leader's problem is that nobody seems to know exactly what that power is -- not even himself.

He has tried to kick for touch by setting up a review that will reduce the amount of waste designated for incineration and turn the Poolbeg plant into a white elephant.

The bottom line, however, is that he has no direct authority to interfere with the EPA.

This leaves Gormley in a highly vulnerable position, for one very simple reason -- the proposed incinerator is almost literally in his own back yard.

Over the last decade his vigorous opposition to the plan has earned him plenty of valuable votes from the exceptionally fickle voters of Dublin South East.

A U-turn on this issue would not just hurt the Greens nationally, it would be leader's political career on the line career.

NIMBYISM

When Dublin City Council was granted planning permission by An Bord Pleannla last November, it attracted over 2,500 objections -- making it one of the most contentious proposals to ever come before the board.

As John Gormley won't need reminding, All these people have votes -- and they won't be shy about using them to express their anger about a move they believe will have a dramatic impact on their quality of life.

Although their stance has smacked of NIMBYism at times, it's hard to blame the area's residents for feeling a little bit nervous about the idea.

Designed to be one of the largest municipal waste incinerators in Europe, the new plant is designed to burn 600,000 tonnes of household rubbish a year -- generating enough electricity to power 50,000 homes.

controversial

It may well be that the new plant turns out to be like the Spire or the smoking ban -- measures that were extremely controversial when they were first proposed but almost universally accepted once they were up and running.

The problem is that, not for the first time, this government has failed in its basic duty of telling the public what's going to happen and why.

This whole fiasco raises the old question of who actually runs the country -- the politicians we elect or the quangos they set up to pass on the responsibility for unpopular decisions.

On one level, John Gormley is now the most powerful man in Irish politics.

barrel

Now that the government's majority has shrunk to just six, he effectively has Brian Cowen over a barrel and can force a general election any time he wants.

On the other hand, Gormley has more reason than most to postpone his next date with the electorate for as long as possible.

His seat in Dublin South East has never been safe and last year he only scraped in on the last count. As the political ghost of Michael McDowell could tell you, this is a constituency that has no qualms about incinerating party leaders.

As things stand, work on the Poolbeg plant will begin in the second half of 2009.

Gormley's cherished review is due for completion by the middle of next year.

CORPSE

This puts the politician and the council on a dangerous collision course and Gormley cannot afford to back down.

Otherwise that disgusting smell around Ringsend will be the aroma of his rotting political corpse.

- Andrew Lynch