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Dan White: Enda is our lucky general as the disaster in Irish banking shows first signs of recovery

PROGRESS: Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Finance Minister Michael Noonan

Tom Burke

PROGRESS: Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Finance Minister Michael Noonan

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By Dan White

Tuesday July 26 2011

And now for the good news. Since the share prices of the Irish banks peaked in early 2007 it has been a tale of constant woe from our once-proud lenders. As the extent of their problems became clear, shocked taxpayers have learned of their soaring bad debts and shrinking deposits.

In the almost three years since the Government was forced to unconditionally guarantee the deposits of the Irish banks in September 2008, five of the six Irish-owned banks, AIB, Anglo, Irish Nationwide, Irish Life & Permanent and EBS, have had to be nationalised and the State has been forced to inject €70bn of taxpayers' money into the banks.

After an endless torrent of bad news, taxpayers could be forgiven for thinking that things would never get better at our broken banks. Until this week that is. The news that the Government had persuaded a syndicate of international banks to invest up to €1.1bn into Bank of Ireland could yet represent a turning point.

Argue

Depending on how many shares Bank of Ireland's existing shareholders purchase, the new private shareholders could end up with a stake of up to 37pc in Bank of Ireland. While a sceptic could argue that the private investors are buying in at the bottom, the fact remains that it has been a very long time since private investors have been prepared to put real money into any of the Irish banks.

Bank of Ireland has long been recognised as the least broken of the Irish banks. However, the first tentative signs of life have also been detected at its major domestic rival AIB. It has reported underlying first-half losses of €2.6bn, up from €2.1bn in the first half of 2010. Does this represent the first tentative signs of recovery at AIB? True the bank had to set aside a further €3bn against bad debts, but the massive escalation of its losses, which had become routine since the Celtic Tiger bubble burst in 2008, seems to have at least slowed if not quite halted.

When a general was recommended to him for promotion, Napoleon is reputed to have asked "is he lucky"? Someone could equally ask the same question of Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Finance Minister Michael Noonan. Since last February's general election they have been able to deliver a series of "good news" announcements including the lower bailout interest rate, the "jobs initiative" and the extension of the repayment period on our bailout loans.

Now the fortunes of the two major Irish banks seem to have bottomed out.

While both AIB and Bank of Ireland remain in intensive care, the first signs of recovery have begun to emerge. Still, it might not be a good idea to get too carried away. Bank lending is still shrinking and the domestic economy is still flat-lining. We are still way short of the 2.75pc average annual economic growth rate upon which the four-year budgetary plan is predicated.

Unemployment remains at close to record levels and, as last week's Superquinn receivership makes clear, retail spending, which has collapsed by a sixth since 2007, remains stuck in the doldrums. Still, as this week's news makes clear, a case can be made for arguing that the economic glass is half full rather than half empty. It's a very long time since any Irish Government has been able to make that claim.

- Dan White

 

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