IT seems no Irish ministers will attend the climate negotiations in Copenhagen in any meaningful way. The reasons are anyone's guess. Ministers may expect to be fully occupied with the Budget. They may want to avoid questions about the costs and emissions of a trip to Denmark. Ministers may not want to be associated with international negotiations that are likely to fail.

Ireland's main contribution will be the announcement of a carbon tax on the third day of the negotiations. President Barack Obama will be there on the same day, and take centre stage.

Climate change will bring more rain to Ireland in winter. The current floods are probably partly caused by climate change, as are floods in other parts of the world.

Per head, Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions are among the highest in the world. Compared to other countries, our emission profile is peculiar. Irish businesses emit relatively little greenhouse gases. Emissions from power generation are somewhere in the middle, per kilowatt hour, of those of other rich countries.

However, emissions from agriculture and transport are much higher than in comparable countries. For agriculture, the reason is that we export so much beef and diary. For transport, emissions are high because the population is dispersed and public transport is underdeveloped.

Many houses have been built in recent years. Spatial planning is poorly developed and imperfectly enforced. The result is urban sprawl. It is expensive to provide public transport to a population that is spread out over a large area.

Poor planning also means that houses have been built in flood plains. It is not always clear what are flood plains because of inadequate flood maps and lack of communication. The responsibility for collecting data on water levels is spread over the local authorities, five state agencies, and one state company.

At the heart of these problems, there is a Government that does not regulate private activity very well, that does not plan very well, and that is not very effective in realising its plans.

An acute shortage of funds further complicates things.

This theme is well rehearsed. The electoral system favours populists over experts and managers.

The senior ranks in the civil service reflect the education standards of the past, and frequent job rotation prevent the accumulation of expertise and experience. The media and population complain but do not hold to account. On that basis, you cannot run one of the richest countries in the world.

Crises create opportunities. The civil service needs to be overhauled anyway, and early retirements would accelerate renewal. Building is at an all-time low and developers are at NAMA's mercy, so planning regulations can be sharpened and enforced without upsetting vested interests.

The consolidation of government departments and agencies should result in a single body with responsibility for spatial planning, and a single flood management authority.

The alternative is a steady increase in greenhouse gas emissions from transport and a steady increase of flood risks.

Government ministers would have their hands full to bring about these changes. This would be time usefully spent, while an Irish minister would be a helpless onlooker in Copenhagen. Perhaps we can convince President Obama to announce the Irish carbon tax in our stead.

Richard Tol is a research professor with the ESRI

- Richard Tol